Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in September, while employment dropped by 39,000, a steeper decline than economists anticipated. August's employment growth was also revised downward, from 39,500 to 29,300, leaving the trend at 16,000 per month. CreditorWatch Chief Economist Ivan Colhoun cautioned that the data may overstate labor market weakness, pointing to unusual volatility in New South Wales and part-time employment.
Colhoun highlighted a 35,000 drop in employment in New South Wales and a 0.4 percentage point rise in its unemployment rate. Nationally, part-time employment fell by 74,000, raising doubts about the data's reliability. He attributed the swings to changes in the Australian Bureau of Statistics' survey process rather than a true economic shift.
The figures come just before the Reserve Bank of Australia's November meeting, with the unemployment rate hitting 4.7% earlier than the central bank expected. Colhoun suggested this may prompt revisions to the RBA's forecasts but does not necessarily signal an end to monetary tightening. He emphasized that inflation data remains the key factor in policy decisions.
Other labor market indicators showed less dramatic changes, with underemployment and youth unemployment rates posting modest shifts. SEEK job advertisements rose for the second consecutive month, a surprising trend given expectations of higher fuel prices and interest rates. State-based readings added further uncertainty, with most states recording stable or lower unemployment outside New South Wales and Tasmania.