Australia’s Populist Right Rise Driven by Economic and Geographic Divides
Australia’s late arrival of populist-right movements, like One Nation, can be attributed to its stronger economic foundations and more equitable income distribution compared to the US and Europe. Unlike other nations, Australia avoided significant income inequality due to its tax and transfer systems, and it did not experience the same level of cultural divisions as the US, such as racial quotas or extreme 'woke' policies.
The economic landscape has shifted, however. While agricultural and mining sectors have seen uneven fortunes, household disposable income has stagnated, particularly due to inflation, rising mortgage costs, and bracket creep. Wealth inequality has grown, with older Australians benefiting from rising house prices and superannuation, while younger generations struggle with housing affordability and job insecurity.
Geographical disparities also play a role. The RedBridge 'Three Australias' analysis highlights that real disposable income has risen in inner metropolitan areas but fallen in outer suburbs and regional locations. One Nation’s support is strongest in these outer and regional areas, particularly among generation X and younger baby boomers without degrees.
The rise of populist-right movements is not solely driven by economic factors. The ANU POLIS study found that populist orientation, including stricter border control and less stringent environmental laws, is a stronger predictor of One Nation support than financial stress alone. Australia’s traditional trust in institutions and pragmatic approach to government have delayed the populist surge, but these protections are now weakening.