Bank of Canada Sets Stage for 2027 Rate Hikes

The Bank of Canada has published its official schedule for policy interest rate announcements in 2027. The calendar year will feature eight decision dates, spread across four months, with four of these decisions accompanied by the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

The MPR is a crucial document that provides the Bank's updated economic forecasts and allows the governing council to frame any rate change within a detailed analytical narrative. This makes rate changes more likely at MPR meetings than at interim decisions.

Currently, the overnight rate sits at 2.25%, which is the lower end of the Bank's estimated neutral range of 2.25% to 3.25%. Major Canadian bank economists are forecasting gradual hikes toward this neutral rate beginning in 2027, with a consensus clustering around a year-end 2027 rate of 2.75%

The January MPR will arrive with limited Q4 2026 GDP data and a new set of economic projections that will shape the Bank's tone for the year. The Governing Council will want to confirm that the economic recovery observed in mid-2026 is sustained before beginning normalization.