Bitcoin Climbs as Fed Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 18 Percent

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed higher on October 5 as the likelihood of another U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike dropped sharply. Following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, markets now assign just an 18% chance to a rate increase at the Fed's October 28 meeting, down from 70% at the end of September.

The decline in rate hike expectations boosted Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as lower interest rates typically favor risk assets. BTC gained 1% on the day, trading near $86,000 U.S. Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) also saw gains as investors reacted positively to the shifting outlook.

The Fed had raised rates by 25 basis points in September, its first hike in three years, citing persistent inflation. However, September's jobs report fell far short of expectations, with only 29,000 new positions added compared to the forecasted 84,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to its weakest pace since May 2021.

With markets now pricing in a rate pause, Bitcoin and other digital assets stand to benefit. Historically, October has been the strongest month for cryptocurrencies, with BTC reaching an all-time high of $126,000 U.S. during October 2025.