A strong majority of Bank of Japan (BOJ) watchers now expect the central bank to raise interest rates in December, according to a recent Bloomberg survey. Over 80% of respondents anticipate the next rate hike will occur at the meeting ending on December 18, 2026. The current borrowing cost stands at 1.25%. This marks a significant shift from last month’s survey, where only 35% predicted a December hike, with January being the most popular choice at the time.
The survey also reveals that none of the participants expect a rate increase when the BOJ concludes its next meeting on October 30, 2026. The growing consensus for a December move suggests economists are increasingly confident in the BOJ’s willingness to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later.
The rapid change in expectations highlights the evolving economic landscape and the BOJ’s potential response to inflationary pressures or other economic indicators. The survey results reflect a growing belief that the central bank is prepared to act decisively in the near term.