The Bank of Japan will release its Summary of Opinions from the October 29-30 policy meeting at 23:50 GMT on Monday. This document provides an early look at the central bank's internal debate, though it omits names and is edited by Governor Kazuo Ueda. The Summary is seen as more market-moving than the later minutes, which offer a fuller but delayed account.
At the October meeting, the BoJ held its policy rate at 1.25%, a 31-year high, with only one dissenting vote from Hajime Takata, who pushed for a hike to 1.5%. The Bank noted that underlying inflation is now consistent with its 2% target and raised its fiscal 2027 core inflation forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%. However, Governor Ueda later softened the inflation message in his press conference.
Markets widely expect the BoJ to raise rates again in December, continuing its quarterly hike pace. The Summary could influence expectations by revealing how many members see conditions for the next move as already met. A hawkish tone would likely strengthen the yen, while a cautious stance would leave timing uncertain.
Meanwhile, China will publish its October trade data on Tuesday. Exports are expected to grow about 33% year-on-year, slightly slower than September’s 36% surge, while imports are seen up around 32%. The trade surplus is projected near $126 billion, down from September’s $134 billion. The export boom has been driven by demand for AI infrastructure hardware, though some analysts see early signs of a tech cycle slowdown.
The equity market backdrop remains weak, with the CSI 300 falling 8.5% in October. Beijing has introduced measures to support stocks, including expanded swap facilities for broker-funded purchases and eased buyback rules. However, analysts argue that a lasting turnaround would require broader fiscal support and a steadier property market.