BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Rise as 97% of Economists Predict September Move

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its policy rate this month, according to economists and market indicators. A recent Reuters poll showed that 97% of 68 economists expect a rate hike to 1.25% on September 18.

Major financial houses such as MUFG Research and Daiwa Capital Markets also forecast a September move. MUFG expects the BOJ rate to rise from 1.00% to 1.50% in the first quarter of 2027, while Daiwa predicts hikes in September and December this year.

However, Nomura Securities remains a notable outlier with a 60% probability on an October hike and only 10% on September. Nomura expects further increases in March and July 2027 due to underlying Japanese inflation's limited ability to accelerate independently of yen weakness and higher oil prices.