BOJ Rate Hike Fails to Spark Usual Market Mayhem
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates as expected, but the market reaction was unexpected. Despite the rate hike, the Nasdaq rallied by 1.7% in a single day, leaving many to question whether the traditional 'yen-carry unwind' narrative is overstated.
Moomoo AI analyzed three possible scenarios based on the BOJ statement: hawkish, neutral, and dovish. According to these scenarios, if the BOJ adopts a hawkish stance, the yen may strengthen, volatility may increase, and technology shares could be pressured. If the guidance remains neutral, consolidation is likely to continue. In contrast, dovish signals could support risk appetite.
A comparison with previous rate-hike periods in 2018 and 2022 reveals that Nasdaq appears more resilient this time around. Stronger momentum, priced-in policy moves, and less severe liquidity stress have contributed to its resilience.