BoJ Rate Hikes Have Little Long-Term Impact on Bitcoin Prices

The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates five times since March 2024, and it's surprising how little they've affected Bitcoin prices. The one exception was the 19 March 2024 rate hike, which saw a massive -8.40% drop in Bitcoin's price on that day.

Average move on decision days was 3.16%, more than double the 1.74% average for other days. However, this is largely due to the outlier performance of 19 March 2024. If we exclude this day, the four remaining rate hike days averaged a 1.85% move.

The researchers used Phemex's BTCUSDT perpetual daily closes from 21 December 2023 to 15 September 2026 to analyze the data. They found that the rate hikes had little long-term impact on Bitcoin prices, with an average absolute move of 7.62% after 20 sessions.