Australia's housing market downturn is now being led by Brisbane and Perth, the two cities that previously powered the country's property boom. According to the latest Housing Monitor from National Australia Bank (NAB), dwelling prices across the combined capitals fell for a seventh consecutive month in October 2026, leaving them about 8% below their March 2026 peak. NAB has revised its forecast, now expecting a peak-to-trough decline of around 14%, up from 11% in its October 2026 forecast, with prices unlikely to find a floor before the second quarter of 2027.
The sharp reversal in Brisbane and Perth is particularly notable. Six months ago, these cities were leading the market with annual growth of 26% in Perth and close to 20% in Brisbane. However, prices in both cities have now fallen more than 8% from their recent peaks, with Brisbane seeing a 2% drop and Perth a 1.7% decline in October alone. The downturn has shifted from Sydney and Melbourne, where the monthly decline has slowed.
The slowdown is also affecting broker volumes. Sydney-based IN Mortgage settled approximately $305 million in loans between July and October 2026, down from $415 million over the same period in 2025, a fall of around 26.5%. Founder William Xin noted that the slower market exposes weaknesses in the traditional broking model, emphasizing the importance of customer retention and diversifying services.
Bank economists are revising their outlooks for the former boom markets. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) senior economist Trent Saunders lifted CBA's forecast peak-to-trough falls for Brisbane and Perth to around 18%, from about 8% in September. Saunders attributed the speed of the reversal to overexuberance in the upswing and the Reserve Bank of Australia's November rate rise, its fifth of 2026.