Canada Jobs Data Faces Tariff-Related Headwinds
Canada's labor market will be in focus next week as investors and policymakers assess the impact of trade tensions on hiring and the economy. The September employment data, set to be released on Friday, is expected to carry significant weight for the Bank of Canada's next policy decision.
CIBC Capital Markets predicts a modest rebound in hiring, but warns that new U.S. tariffs could continue to weigh on manufacturing employment and push the unemployment rate higher. The bank expects Canada's unemployment rate to edge higher as tariff-related pressures affect staffing, although it sees the labor market recovering if a trade agreement with the United States is reached.
CIBC forecasts employment to rise by 5,000 in September, compared to the market expectation of a 9,200 increase and following a 41,700 decline in August. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 6.5% from 6.4%, matching the market consensus.