Canada’s Major Project Boom Could Generate $443B for SMEs by 2030
A new study from the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC), supported by the Transition Accelerator, reveals that Canada could see an influx of $670 billion in investments from major projects between 2026 and 2030. This investment wave is expected to generate $443 billion in cumulative economic activity and boost the country’s GDP by 4.1% by 2030. The study highlights that approximately 280,000 Canadian businesses, primarily small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), will be crucial in delivering these projects.
The study identifies five key sectors driving this investment pipeline: housing and civil infrastructure ($220.1 billion), energy ($159.8 billion), defence ($153.7 billion), mining and natural gas ($125.8 billion), and AI data centres ($11.2 billion). While many SMEs are eager to participate, challenges such as financing, capacity, and procurement remain significant barriers. The study found that 67% of SMEs already involved in major projects expect to increase their participation over the next 24 months, with high-growth firms and technology sectors showing even stronger ambition.
Despite the optimism, the study notes a readiness gap between SMEs deeply involved in large projects and those with limited participation. Larger SMEs in construction, technology, and information services are better positioned to seize opportunities, while smaller businesses in retail and manufacturing face higher perceived risks and cash constraints. To bridge this gap, the study suggests improving information about upcoming opportunities, offering smaller contract lots, and adapting procurement processes to better support SMEs.
Isabelle Hudon, President and CEO of BDC, emphasized that the current environment presents a unique opportunity for Canadian businesses to scale through acquisitions, partnerships, and productivity gains. Pierre Cléroux, Chief Economist at BDC, added that the supply chain for these projects is critical and that with the right support, SMEs can leverage these opportunities to create lasting economic value.