Canadians Want Economic Independence Over US Trade Deal

A recent survey by Abacus Data found that 70% of Canadians believe that 50% American tariffs would damage their local economy, including 29% who expect severe harm.

Only 9% see any upside to the tariffs. The survey also revealed that 74% say the trade dispute has already affected their household finances over the past year and a half, with 30% calling the impact major.

In stark contrast, only 18% want Ottawa to offer concessions such as easing dairy restrictions or lifting bans on American alcohol to make the tariffs go away.

This suggests that Canadians' opposition to concessions is not driven by economic calculation alone, but also by emotional factors. The survey found that 55% of Canadians want Canada to prepare to move on from CUSMA and build trade relationships elsewhere, while only 34% want to preserve and update the agreement.

This desire for economic independence and options is a key factor in the politics surrounding the current trade negotiations, according to David Coletto. He believes that Canadians will not judge a deal simply by whether tariffs come off, but rather on what Canada gave up, whether the agreement produces stability, and whether the government used this crisis to reduce Canada's vulnerability to the United States.

Coletto also warns that failing to land a deal may be survivable for Mark Carney's government because Canadians already assign blame for the chaos to Washington and Trump. However, agreeing to a deal that feels like capitulation is not, as seen in the recent softening of Liberal support in Quebec due to speculation about dairy concessions.