China’s economic data for October will be released on Monday, with expectations of a slowdown in retail sales growth to 0.7% year-over-year due to weak consumer spending. Fixed asset investment growth is projected to improve slightly to -6.7% year-over-year year-to-date, supported by public investment. Industrial production is expected to maintain its strong performance with a 5.5% year-over-year increase. Additionally, property prices in tier 1 and some tier 2 cities are showing signs of stabilization.
Later in the week, China’s loan prime rates are anticipated to remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate.
Taiwan’s export orders data, due next Friday, is expected to continue its robust growth, with a projected 67.0% year-over-year increase in October. This indicator remains a key signal for the AI capex cycle, which has shown no signs of slowing yet. Taiwanese companies report full order books for the next 18 months, suggesting sustained momentum.
Japan will release its third-quarter GDP and trade data next week, with growth expected to slow to 0.1% quarter-over-quarter from the previous 0.4%. Private consumption is forecast to contract by 0.2% due to higher utility bills following the expiry of energy subsidies. Imports are projected to accelerate to 25.9% year-over-year, driven by energy and capital equipment, while exports are expected to rise to 20.1%, marking 13 consecutive months of year-over-year gains. The trade balance is anticipated to show a deficit of JPY1067bn.
Japan’s inflation data, also due next Friday, is expected to show headline inflation accelerating to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.1% in September, with core CPI rising to 2.3%. A strong inflation reading could bolster expectations for further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan.