Consumer Confidence Dips as Political Landscapes Shift in Australia and New Zealand

The latest Roy Morgan update reveals a mixed economic and political landscape in Australia and New Zealand. Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, falling 3.4 points to 67.1, well below the neutral level of 100, following the Reserve Bank's recent cash rate increase. Inflation expectations have also risen, with Australians now anticipating annual inflation of 5.9% over the next two years.

In Victoria, the upcoming state election is shaping up to be highly competitive. Roy Morgan's new Winnability Score, which combines current voting intention with voter profile alignment, indicates that One Nation has strong prospects beyond its traditional rural strongholds. The party's appeal is expanding into outer metropolitan and regional growth areas, making it a significant contender. Meanwhile, inner-city and metropolitan electorates remain strongholds for Labor, the Greens, and pockets of Liberal support. A seat-by-seat analysis suggests a potential Labor-Greens coalition, but preferences and campaign dynamics could alter the outcome.

Across the Tasman, New Zealand's political landscape is also shifting. With the election set for November 7, the latest Roy Morgan poll shows the National-led government coalition leading 52% to 41.5% over the Labour-led Opposition. This is the largest lead for the government in two years, with support for NZ First and ACT increasing, while Labour sees a slight decline.