Dollar Hits 8-Week High Amid Hawkish Fed Rhetoric

The US dollar has reached an 8-week high, breaking out of its previous downtrend against major currencies. The reversal is attributed to hawkish bets on future Federal Reserve policy and President Trump's calm comments on the matter.

The dollar index (USDIDX) has shifted its trading regime, breaching the +1 standard deviation relative to the VWAP anchored since January 2026. On the 2026 timeframe, it barely touches the middle trading zone.

The Federal Reserve's rhetoric has taken a hawkish turn, with the Bloomberg Economics Index measuring tone of Fed officials' statements at +9.94, near the upper end of its range over the past dozen years.