Dollar Softening Boosts Gold Amid Lower Rate Expectations
Gold prices inched up Monday as the US dollar softened, making dollar-priced metals cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Spot gold rose by 0.3% to $4,388.62 an ounce, while December US gold futures added 0.2% to $4,444.30.
The main driver behind this move was a decline in interest-rate expectations after weaker US jobs data and a mild inflation reading were released. Markets now price a 33% chance of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, down from 47% a month ago. This shift makes gold more appealing to investors as it doesn't pay interest, making it a better choice when interest rates are expected to be lower.
The upcoming test will be the Fed's July meeting minutes due Wednesday. Investors will closely scan these minutes for hints on whether officials are leaning towards keeping rates high or becoming more comfortable waiting. The market is highly sensitive to this information as it tends to quickly affect both the dollar and short-term Treasury yields.