EBRD Keeps Bulgaria Growth Forecast Unchanged Amid Rising Electricity Prices

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has maintained its forecast of Bulgaria's economic growth, predicting a 2.7% expansion in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.

According to the EBRD's September Regional Economic Prospects report, Bulgaria's real GDP grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, following growth rates of 3.4% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025.

The bank attributed this resilience to domestic demand, consumption, and investment, despite higher inflation and a deteriorating fiscal position.

However, the EBRD warned that efforts to reduce Bulgaria's general government deficit, projected at 5.7% of GDP in 2026, could weigh on consumer and business confidence, posing a risk to the growth outlook.