The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker, revealing slightly higher wage growth in the first three quarters of 2027 compared to the full year of 2026. The headline wage tracker, which includes one-off payments smoothed over 12 months, shows a negotiated wage growth of 2.3% for 2026. For the second half of 2026, the tracker stands at 2.7%, rising to 2.8% in the first half of 2027 before declining to 2.4% in the third quarter of 2027.
The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments increased from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.8% for the first three quarters of 2027, indicating a slightly higher permanent negotiated wage growth. The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments stands at 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027, down from 2.7% for the first half of 2027 and for 2026 as a whole.
The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker has been extended up to the end of September 2027, with employee coverage for 2026 at 46.2%, decreasing significantly to 31.8% in the first half of 2027 and to 23.3% in the third quarter of 2027. The ECB notes that the wage tracker may be subject to revision and should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures information currently available for active collective bargaining agreements.
For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, the ECB staff macroeconomic projections for September 2026 indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee of 3.3% in 2026. The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the nine participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal, with the next data release following the December 2026 meeting of the ECB Governing Council to be published on 18 December 2026.