ECB Survey Reveals Shifts in Euro Area Inflation Perceptions and Expectations

The European Central Bank (ECB) has released its Consumer Expectations Survey for June 2026, revealing shifts in consumer inflation perceptions and expectations. The median rate of perceived inflation over the past 12 months fell to 3.6% from 4.0% in May, while median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months declined to 3.0% from 3.5%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead edged down to 2.8% from 2.9%, and five-year inflation expectations remained steady at 2.4%. Lower-income households continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than higher-income households.

The survey also found that uncertainty about near-term inflation expectations decreased for a second consecutive month, although it still remains above the level seen before the conflict in the Middle East. Consumers' expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0% in May, while perceived nominal spending growth over the prior 12 months fell to 5.1% from 5.4%, and expected spending growth over the next 12 months declined to 3.6% from 3.8%. Respondents in the lowest three income quintiles anticipated slightly higher spending growth than those in the top two quintiles.