ECB Wage Tracker Points to Modest Pay Growth Ahead

The European Central Bank has released its updated wage tracker, indicating a modest increase in negotiated pay growth for the first half of 2027. According to ECB data, the headline indicator suggests negotiated wage growth of 2.6% to 2.7% through the end of the first quarter of next year, followed by an uptick to 2.8%. The bank is closely monitoring wage developments to see if recent inflation surges are fueling undue pay demands.

The ECB has long argued that figures around 3% are consistent with its own 2% inflation target. This latest update comes as the bank continues to watch wage growth closely, aiming to balance economic expansion with price stability.