ECB Wage Tracker Points to Modest Pay Growth Pickup

The European Central Bank's updated wage tracker is signaling a modest increase in negotiated pay growth for the first half of next year, according to data released on Wednesday.

The bank's headline indicator suggests a wage growth rate of 2.6% to 2.7% through the end of the first quarter of 2028, followed by a pickup to 2.8%. The ECB is closely monitoring wage developments to determine if recent inflation surges are fueling undue pay demands.

The bank has argued for some time that figures around 3% are consistent with its own 2% inflation target. In this context, the modest uptick in negotiated pay growth may be seen as a welcome development by policymakers.