ECB's Wage Tracker Points to Modest Pay Growth in Early 2027

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker, showing a modest uptick in negotiated pay growth for the first half of 2027. According to the ECB's data, the headline indicator suggests that negotiated wage growth will be between 2.6% and 2.7% through the end of the first quarter of next year. This is slightly higher than the steady increases seen throughout this year.

The ECB is closely monitoring wage developments to determine if the recent surge in inflation is driving excessive pay demands. However, it has consistently argued that figures around 3% are consistent with its own 2% inflation target.