Employment Trends Index Dips in September 2026 Amid Rising Job Market Challenges
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) dropped to 107.56 in September 2026, marking a 0.5% decline from the revised August reading of 108.08. This index, which aggregates eight labor-market indicators, serves as a leading composite index for payroll employment. Despite the September decrease, the ETI remains 1.0% higher than its level from a year ago, suggesting moderate payroll employment growth ahead.
Conrad Qi, Economic Data Scientist Associate at The Conference Board, noted that the ETI decreased after two consecutive monthly increases in July and August. Consumer and small firm measures contributed the most negatively to the index. The share of consumers reporting that jobs are ‘hard to get’ rose to 21.9% in September from a revised 20.3% in August. Additionally, the share of small firms reporting positions they could not fill right now fell to 32% from 35%. These trends indicate a more challenging job market for seekers.
The ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers also increased, rising to 16.5% from 16.2%, signaling greater underemployment. Employment in temporary help services fell by 10,900, despite an overall increase of 29,000 in total nonfarm payroll employment. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell, providing a positive contribution to the ETI and signaling fewer layoffs. Job openings increased by 129,000 to 7.21 million, and industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales saw estimated increases of 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.
Overall, four of the ETI’s eight components contributed positively to the index, with initial claims for unemployment insurance, job openings, industrial production, and real manufacturing and trade sales being the most significant. The negative contributions were led by the percentage of respondents who say they find ‘jobs hard to get,’ the percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now, the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, and the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry.