EURBDT Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Debt Pullback and Policy Shifts

The Euro vs Bangladeshi Taka (EUR/BDT) pair is currently trading at BDT137.785, marking a modest gain of 0.40% for the day. However, the pair remains below its key moving averages, signaling ongoing selling pressure and a bearish outlook.

Bangladesh’s private-sector external debt has decreased by over 23% from its 2022 peak, reaching $19.94 billion by July 2023. This reduction is attributed to businesses cutting back on foreign borrowing due to higher global interest rates, currency weakness, and increased foreign-exchange pressure. The finance minister announced plans to prioritize domestic capital markets for financing instead of seeking additional IMF or World Bank loans, which could further dampen euro inflows.

Technical indicators suggest a predominantly bearish setup for EUR/BDT. The pair is trading below its MA-20 at BDT138.053, MA-50 at BDT138.389, and MA-200 at BDT142.185. The Ichimoku Kijun at BDT138.022 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators like MACD and ADX point to continued selling momentum, while RSI and CCI are in the Sell zone, and Stochastic RSI indicates overbought conditions.

Over the next few days, EUR/BDT is expected to fluctuate within the BDT137.265 to BDT138.645 range, with a 76% probability of a downward move. A decisive break below near-term support or above the Ichimoku Kijun could set the next trend direction. Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring liquidity developments and potential volatility as key risks for EUR/BDT in the near term.