Euro Area Fuel Prices Soar After Middle East Conflict

Retail fuel prices in the euro area surged after the Middle East conflict in early 2026, driven by rising energy inflation. According to a recent analysis by European Central Bank (ECB) experts Friderike Kuik, Eliza Lis, Christiane Nickel, and Mario Porqueddu, the average retail diesel price across the euro area rose from €1.63 per litre in late February 2026 to €2.18 per litre by early April.

Prices for Brent crude oil skyrocketed after the conflict, peaking at $138 per barrel in early April, almost double the level seen in late February. The price of refined diesel rose even faster, reaching $197 per barrel in April. As a result, retail fuel prices jumped significantly, with diesel prices increasing by 34% and petrol prices rising as well.

The analysis found that an increase of €0.10 per litre in crude oil prices typically translates into an increase of €0.10 per litre in pre-tax pump prices. However, the pass-through from oil prices to pump prices is not complete in relative terms, as a large share of the retail price is fixed and does not move with oil market prices.

Excise duties, which are taxes levied at a fixed amount per litre, averaged €0.52 for diesel and €0.66 for petrol in the euro area since 2021. Some countries temporarily cut these duties to alleviate the burden on consumers during the energy shock.