Euro Area Inflation Projected to Rise to 3.8 Percent in September 2026

The Euro area's annual inflation rate is projected to climb to 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat. Energy prices are leading the surge, with inflation expected to hit 18.8%, a significant jump from 14.3% the previous month. Monthly consumer prices are also anticipated to rise by 0.6%.

Other sectors show varied trends. Services inflation is estimated at 3.2%, slightly higher than August's 3.0%, while food, alcohol, and tobacco prices are expected to increase to 1.4% from 1.1%. Non-energy industrial goods inflation, however, is projected to ease to 1.1% from 1.2%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, is estimated to edge up to 2.5% from 2.4%.

Among euro area countries, Lithuania is expected to have the highest inflation rate at 6.1%, followed by Bulgaria at 5.6%. Cyprus and Luxembourg are each estimated at 5.2%, while Greece and Spain are projected at 5.1% and 5.0%, respectively. Among the bloc's largest economies, Germany's inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% from 2.9%, France's to 3.4% from 2.6%, and Italy's to 4.1% from 3.2%. Malta is projected to have the lowest rate at 2.4%, followed by Finland at 2.6%.