Eurozone Wage Growth to Edge Up to 2.8% in Early 2027

The European Central Bank (ECB) has analyzed the latest wage tracker data and expects negotiated wages to remain flat through the end of this year. The growth rate is anticipated to hold at 2.6% to 2.7% through the first quarter of 2027, before rising to 2.8%. This modest acceleration in wage growth will likely be welcomed by policymakers, who have been closely watching wage developments to assess whether they are translating into excessive pay demands.

The ECB has consistently stated that a wage growth rate around 3% is consistent with its 2% inflation target. The latest data suggest that while there are no signs of wage pressures spiraling out of control, a modest upward drift is expected heading into next year.