Fed Minutes ECB Data to Steer Gold EURUSD USDJPY Trends

The Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting minutes, set for release on Wednesday, could heavily influence gold prices. While the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, recent weak payroll data, showing only 29,000 jobs added, has lowered expectations for an October hike. If the minutes reflect a hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks or the need for tighter policy, Treasury yields and the dollar may strengthen, pressuring gold. Conversely, a more dovish tone could support gold by signaling a prolonged Fed pause.

Gold is trading near $4,150, with recent support coming from cooler inflation data and sluggish labor markets. However, a strong dollar and high real yields remain challenges. A breakdown below $4,120 would confirm a bearish trend, targeting $4,000 and $3,940. On the upside, breaking above $4,200 could reignite buying interest, as technical indicators currently suggest upward momentum.

The European Central Bank’s September 10 meeting minutes may impact EUR/USD. Despite initial hawkish messaging, markets see only a 21% chance of an October rate hike. Eurozone inflation near 4.0% and rising core CPI metrics keep the possibility of an October hike alive. EUR/USD is near 1.1200, with French political uncertainty and dollar strength capping gains. A strongly hawkish ECB stance could spark a rally to 1.1250, while a more cautious approach may push the pair toward 1.1060.

Japan’s August wage data, due Wednesday, will be key for USD/JPY. After a 4.7% expansion in July, analysts expect a moderation to 3.7%. A weaker-than-expected reading could weaken yen strength, lifting USD/JPY above 159.00. A stronger result may bolster the yen, supporting the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. USD/JPY is consolidating below 158.00, with intervention warnings from Japanese officials limiting upside potential.