FOMC Meeting Outcome on Interest Rate Hike Looms Large

The US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is holding its two-day meeting from July 28 to 29, after which it will release the outcome at 2:00 pm ET. The committee, led by newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, aims to maintain price stability and generate maximum employment for the US economy.

According to CME Group's FedWatch data, there is a 68.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the key benchmark interest rates unchanged at their current range of 3.50% to 3.75%. However, a 31.5% probability suggests that the FOMC may increase the interest rates to the range of 3.75% to 4.00%

The committee's decision will be influenced by various factors, including global crude oil prices and their impact on domestic inflation. The US retail inflation declined in June 2026, but remains above the 2% target level.