Global Economic Momentum on Trial This Week
Investors will face a crucial test of global economic momentum in the week ahead as key indicators are released across major economies. The highlight of the US docket is Friday's employment report, which is expected to show modest job growth after contracting by 23,000 in July.
According to Deutsche Bank economists, headline nonfarm payrolls will rebound by 65,000, while Wells Fargo anticipates a gain of 80,000. The US unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1% or edge up slightly to 4.2%, with average hourly earnings forecast to rebound to a monthly pace of 0.3% to 0.4%.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh will set the stage for the payrolls report, which is expected to solidify expectations for a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. This comes as inflation pressures continue to collide with slowing labor market momentum.
Outside of the US, attention will center on inflation and central bank policy decisions across key G10 economies. The Eurozone's August inflation data is expected to show consumer prices accelerating to an annual rate of 3.3% to 3.4%, solidifying expectations for a September rate hike by the European Central Bank.