Global Rates Surge as Risks Rise Amid Mixed Economic Data

Global benchmark interest rates surged again overnight, particularly in the US and Europe, reflecting rising risks and market uncertainty. The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, its highest in 24 years, while the 30-year yield reached 5.70%, the highest since 2002. The yield curve steepened, with the key 2-10 spread widening to 48 basis points. In Europe, France's central bank warned that rising interest payments could strangle the country's budget, adding to economic stress.

In Brazil, a presidential runoff election is set for October 25 after the first round failed to produce a clear winner. Jair Bolsonaro's son secured 47% of the vote, narrowly edging out Lula's 45%, setting the stage for a contentious battle. Meanwhile, the US service sector showed mixed signals, with the ISM report indicating moderating growth, while the S&P Global PMI surged to a 4½-year high in new order growth, accompanied by accelerating input cost inflation.

China's National Day holiday spending showed signs of recovery, with foot traffic up 3.4% and revenue up 5.3% year-over-year. However, Singapore's retail sales growth slowed in August, falling below expectations. Oil prices eased slightly despite renewed attacks in the Hormuz region, with Brent crude dropping to $101 per barrel. The Kiwi dollar fell to a 14-month low against the US dollar at 55.9 US cents, while the Bitcoin price remained relatively stable at $85,248, with modest volatility.

Wall Street started the week on a positive note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively. European markets were mixed, with London up 0.3% and Paris down 0.8%. Gold prices softened to $4,130 per ounce, negatively impacting gold mining stocks, while silver edged up to $61 per ounce.