Gold and silver prices climbed in international markets on Monday, October 12, as investors braced for key US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve on future interest rate moves. On COMEX, gold futures rose to $4,229.80 per ounce, up 0.32% from the previous close, while silver futures gained 0.72% to $61.485 per ounce.
The upcoming US consumer price index (CPI), producer price data, and retail sales figures this week will shape expectations around inflation and the economy. Rising energy costs could push inflation higher, influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Gold, which lacks interest income, often faces pressure when rates rise, but a weaker dollar and lower bond yields can offset this.
Last week, gold futures for December delivery on COMEX surged 1.3% to $4,216.30 per ounce, while silver climbed over 1% to $61.05 per ounce. This recovery followed a softer US dollar and a pullback in Treasury yields. Silver also benefited from gains in industrial metals like copper and zinc. However, tighter monetary policy expectations could cap further gains, with markets weighing whether the Fed will raise rates in October or delay until December.
In India, the rupee's movement will be crucial for domestic bullion prices. A weaker rupee increases import costs, potentially limiting global price declines, while a stronger rupee could moderate gains. Jateen Trivedi, vice-president at LKP Securities, anticipates range-bound gold and silver prices with a mildly positive bias due to rupee weakness. Investors are also watching inflation data from India, China, and the US, along with trade data from China and Fed speeches for further direction.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery rose nearly 1% last week to around ₹1.51 lakh per 10 grams, while silver futures dipped marginally to around ₹2.25 lakh per kilogram. Trivedi's outlook suggests a range-bound market with a mildly positive bias, rather than a sustained trend.