Gold Breaks Key Barrier Amid Weak US Jobs Report

Gold futures surged to $4,399 per ounce on August 7, 2026, as weak US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data sparked a decline in expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. The gold contract appreciated by 2.33% after the release of July's NFP report, which showed a contraction of 23,000 jobs, a sharp downside surprise compared to the consensus expectation of 80,000 new jobs.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) depreciated by 0.36% to 99.60 points on expectations of a more neutral Fed policy path. Technical analysis reveals that gold has breached a downward trendline and is approaching key resistance levels at $4,500 and $4,870. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator exhibits a bullish divergence and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates rising momentum.

The implied market probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase fell from 54% to approximately 44%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Currently, FedWatch probabilities signal a 56% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain benchmark interest rates unchanged at the current level of 3.75% during its September meeting.