Gold Climbs on Softer US Inflation Data and Asian Demand
Gold prices in India rose 0.91% to ₹150,390 per ounce, driven by softer-than-expected US inflation data. The report lowered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, with market-implied probabilities dropping from 45% to 37%. However, a December rate hike still appears likely, with an 89% probability. Rising geopolitical tensions and a stronger US dollar capped gold’s gains.
HSBC revised its gold price forecasts downward, citing expectations of further US rate hikes and higher oil prices. The bank cut its 2026 forecast to $4,490 per ounce from $4,560 and its 2027 forecast to $4,825. Goldman Sachs, however, maintained its 2027 target at $5,400, citing long-term structural drivers like central-bank diversification.
Physical demand improved modestly in major Asian markets. Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $14 per ounce, narrowing from $43 earlier, ahead of the Dussehra and Diwali buying seasons. Chinese bullion traded at premiums of 5-10, while Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan saw mixed pricing trends. London vault holdings rose 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes, valued at around $1.2 trillion.
Technically, gold saw fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.52% to 15,955. Support is placed near ₹149,570, while resistance stands at ₹150,975. A decisive move above this level could push prices toward ₹151,560.