Gold Prices Poised for Q4 Surge Despite Hawkish Fed

The gold market has shown resilience in the face of a strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields. Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, gold managed to remain positive in Q3 and is expected to continue this trend into Q4.

A potential deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz could see central banks delay or pause rate hikes, which would be beneficial for gold prices. Central bank buying has been a significant source of support for gold, with major central banks such as China's People's Bank continuing to accumulate gold reserves.

The technical analysis suggests that gold is in an effective consolidation mode since its peak in January, but the long-term trend remains bullish. A break above the resistance trend line around $4,400 could see gold head towards $4,500 and eventually $5,000.