Gold Prices Tumble Amid Rising US Real Yields and Hawkish Central Banks
Gold prices are on track to end the week in negative territory due to rising US real yields, a firm dollar, and hawkish central bank policies. As of Monday morning in Singapore, spot gold had fallen 0.1% to $4,271.54 per ounce.
The stronger dollar and surging Treasury yields are putting pressure on gold prices. The dollar index has reached its highest level in nearly two months at 101, while the US 10-year yield is trading near 5.11%, its highest since July 2007. This has led to a 70% probability of another Fed rate hike in October, up from 55% just a day earlier.
Despite short-term headwinds, analysts expect structural factors such as central bank buying and rising US fiscal risks to support the longer-term outlook for gold. Elara Securities predicts that gold will trade between $4,200 and $4,700 per ounce in CY26 and rise further to $5,000-$5,200 per ounce by end-CY27.