Gold Steadies Near $4,400 Amid Mixed Inflation and Geopolitical Signals

Gold prices are holding steady near $4,400 an ounce as markets grapple with mixed signals from diplomacy and inflation expectations. On Monday, August 10, 2026, spot gold was trading at $4,401, barely changed from Friday’s close. However, the week just ended delivered the strongest rally since the start of the year, with bullion climbing roughly 7 percent over five sessions. The surge was fueled by a weak US jobs report and fresh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The July employment data shocked markets by showing a loss of 23,000 jobs instead of the expected 80,000 gain. This prompted traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut expectations. The dollar fell 1.2 percent, and swap markets now see a 70 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut by the third quarter. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had previously hinted at easing if inflation continued to cool, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against lower real yields.

Geopolitical risks remain a key factor, though talks between Iran and Oman to secure the Strait of Hormuz have tempered some of the premium. Iranian officials have cautioned that a bilateral deal won’t automatically reopen the waterway without broader US concessions. Meanwhile, attacks on Saudi oil facilities and new defense agreements among regional powers have added to the uncertainty. Chinese demand for gold, however, shows no signs of slowing, with one of the country’s largest gold ETFs recording 18 straight sessions of net inflows.

Technically, gold faces its next test at $4,340.60. If this support holds, analysts at XTB see a 60 percent chance of further gains, with the 200-day moving average at $4,505.80 as the next target. The upcoming US inflation report on Wednesday will be critical in determining whether gold’s rally can sustain its momentum.