Golden Cross vs Rate Hike: Will Bitcoin's Bullish Signal Overcome Macro Headwinds?

Bitcoin's recent bullish move has sparked excitement among traders, as its 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average on the daily chart, a pattern known as a golden cross. This is Bitcoin's first golden crossover since November 2025 and signals that recent buying momentum has overtaken the long-term trend.

However, the golden cross' track record is mixed, with only three out of 12 past crossovers remaining valid for a full year. Those three generated an average return of 250% over that period, but the other nine crosses resulted in an average gain of around 24.9%. This limited reliability means that traders should approach this signal with caution.

Another bullish indicator is USDT's share of the total crypto market capitalization, which is currently around 8.45%, close to a potential reversal at its 50- and 200-day moving averages. A declining share of USDT is generally considered bullish for Bitcoin as it indicates capital shifting away from stablecoins and towards Bitcoin and altcoins.

However, the odds of a Fed rate hike have risen to 60% following stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls, which may challenge the bullish technical setups. The next major inflation data point, Friday's Consumer Price Index report, will influence the Fed's decision on a rate hike and shape the Bitcoin price prediction.