Hungary's Central Bank Expected to Cut Rates, EUR/HUF to Move

The Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), Hungary's central bank, is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) to 5.50% on Wednesday. This move comes after dovish minutes from the July meeting and a softer-than-expected inflation rate of 1.2% year-over-year.

The European Central Exchange rate EUR/HUF has retreated to around 362, having failed to breach the key resistance level near 368. If the central bank surprises with a hawkish move, the pair could fall back toward 360, while a break above the 200-day moving average at 371 would be needed to revive the broader rebound.

The MNB has already cut rates by 25bp three times this year, and Governor Varga hinted in June that there may be two more cuts before the end of 2026. The dovish setup means that a hawkish pushback could see EUR/HUF move back toward 360.