As U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term reinforces protectionist policies, Japan faces a pivotal moment to strengthen its economic independence while maintaining its alliance with Washington. The shift in U.S. trade policy, marked by unilateral actions and tariffs, has prompted Tokyo to diversify its economic partnerships and enhance its strategic autonomy. Japan’s goal is not to distance itself from the U.S. but to bolster stability by expanding its economic options and fostering resilience alongside its core alliance.
China sees the U.S. policy changes as an opportunity to position itself as a champion of globalization, particularly in the Global South. The high-profile U.S.-China summit in late 2026, however, yielded minimal structural changes in their economic rivalry, leaving regional partners in a state of uncertainty. Japan’s strategy focuses on collaboration rather than competition, aiming to work with a broad coalition, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia, and key Indo-Pacific partners, to promote an open, rules-based international economic order.
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), led by Japan after the U.S. withdrew in 2017, has become a cornerstone of this strategy. With the UK’s accession, the CPTPP now covers about 15 percent of global GDP. Japan is also deepening ties with the EU through the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) and the Japan-EU Competitiveness Alliance, which focuses on supply chain security, critical minerals, and emerging technologies.
Japan’s approach emphasizes balancing open trade with economic security, advocating for ‘Open, Predictable, and Resilient Trade.’ By connecting diverse nations and respecting their developmental stages, Japan aims to build durable coalitions. This multi-layered diplomatic network offers a stable path forward, providing a clear compass for navigating a fractured global economy.