July Jobs Report Expected to Show Moderate Hiring Growth
The July jobs report is expected to show moderate hiring growth after a soft reading in June. Economists forecast a return to healthy job gains, with nonfarm payroll employment rising by 100,000 in July, according to FactSet's consensus estimates. This represents an increase of more than 40,000 from the previous month.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%. Natixis chief economist Chris Hodge notes that this is a 'labor market that is exhibiting stability but not heat.'
Markets expect at least one Fed interest rate increase in 2026, and economists will be watching the wage data in the jobs report for signs of inflation pressure.
The July Jobs Report Forecast Highlights include:
- Nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 100,000 in July vs. 57,000 in June, according to FactSet.
- The unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.
- The average workweek remaining at 34.3 hours.
- Hourly earnings holding steady with a monthly increase of 0.3%.