Kalshi Sees 84% Chance of Fed Holding Rates Steady at October Meeting

The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates has been closely watched by market participants and crypto enthusiasts alike. According to Kalshi, a prediction market platform, there is an 84% probability that the Fed will maintain its benchmark interest rate at the October meeting.

This assessment is based on market pricing as of October 2, 2026, with trading volume reaching approximately $7.23 million. The contract assigns a 16% probability to a 25-basis-point hike and about 1% to an increase larger than 25 basis points.

The recent employment report released earlier this month had a significant impact on market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, compared with the consensus forecast of 84,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This data led traders to interpret the softer-than-expected job gains and rise in unemployment as reducing the likelihood of additional monetary tightening.