The upcoming week promises to be one of the busiest for Australian and New Zealand markets, with key events including the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest-rate decision, Microsoft earnings, and the US PCE inflation report. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday is not expected to result in a rate hike, with markets anticipating the next increase in December. However, any hawkish signals could impact commodities like gold, which has already slipped below the $4,000 support level, potentially heading toward $3,600.
Microsoft is set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with expectations of a 14.3% year-on-year increase in earnings per share to $4.72 and a 16.8% rise in revenue to $90.1bn. Analysts predict the stock could move around 4.7% post-earnings, with significant resistance around $575 and support around $495. The stock has struggled to break above $550, indicating potential downside risks if it continues its recent decline.
The US PCE inflation report on Thursday is expected to show a hotter reading, with headline PCE forecast to rise by 0.5% month-on-month and core PCE by 0.3%. This data could further influence market reactions following the Fed meeting, particularly for the euro, which is vulnerable against the dollar. A hawkish Fed stance and hotter-than-expected PCE could push EUR/USD towards $1.10, while cooler inflation data might see it rally towards $1.144.
Other notable events include the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest-rate decision, Australian CPI data, and earnings from major companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and energy giants later in the week. These events will keep oil and gold in focus, with potential flow-on effects for other markets.