Labor Market Nears Crucial Jobs Report Amid Fragile Stability
The US labor market is set to release its nonfarm payroll numbers for September this morning, providing fresh data on whether the month showed surprising resilience or underwhelmed. The consensus estimate sees the U.S. economy adding 90K jobs in September, down from August's reading of +162K.
According to Olu Sonola, US head of economic research at Fitch Ratings, 'sometimes it's like a coin toss' when trying to estimate nonfarm payroll numbers. Nevertheless, economists run their models to predict where they think the number will land.
The Chicago Fed's latest estimate for the unemployment rate is 4.10%, compared to 4.14% in August. It also sees an uptick in the hiring rate for unemployed workers in September to 45.81% from 44.85% in the prior month.
While full employment is half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, signs of widening cracks in the labor market would certainly get the central bank's attention. So far, the labor market appears calm, but fragile stability, as Sonola described it, 'wouldn't take much to tip it over.'