Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne has announced that the Liberal government will present its latest budget on November 5. This marks the second consecutive budget to be tabled in the fall, a shift from the traditional spring schedule initiated by Prime Minister Mark Carney last year.
The government's spring economic update in April projected a $65 billion deficit for the current fiscal year, down from the earlier forecast of $78.3 billion. This improvement was partly attributed to surging oil prices. However, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) revised its economic growth outlook on the same day as Champagne's announcement, lowering projections to 0.9% for this year and 1.5% for 2027.
The PBO also forecasted a budgetary deficit of $63.3 billion for the 2026-27 fiscal year, peaking at $70.2 billion in 2027-28. Despite Carney's promise to balance the operating budget by 2027, the PBO expects this to occur a year later, in 2029-30, due to inconsistencies in defining operational spending.
The budget will be presented amid rising inflation, which reached 3.1% in September. The PBO anticipates the Bank of Canada will raise its policy rate to 2.75% by mid-2027 to manage inflation, which is expected to average 2.8% this year before easing to 2.4% in 2027.