Macquarie and AMP Predict RBA Hike at Upcoming Meeting
Macquarie has joined several other forecasters in predicting a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its upcoming meeting on September 28-29. The bank's strategists believe the RBA's recent commentary suggests an increasingly hawkish stance, making it unlikely that the central bank will hold off on a fourth interest rate hike this year.
According to interbank futures, there is approximately a 76% chance of a fourth hike in 2026, and over 90% probability of a fifth by March 2027. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver also predicts a September hike, putting the odds at 75%, but notes that it's not a certainty.
Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser recently stated that inflation is too high and questioned whether more rate rises are needed, saying a September hike was not a foregone conclusion. Macquarie chief economist Ric Deverell echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the RBA believes output remains above the economy's potential.
The RBA has maintained its cash rate at 4.35% since May 6, following three quarter-point rises earlier in the year. A fourth hike would take the cash rate to 4.60%, a 15-year high. However, lenders are not obligated to pass on full or immediate rate hikes.