Mexican Peso Forecasted to Fall 9.1% Against US Dollar by End of 2027

Foreign currency strategists at Crédit Agricole have forecasted a gradual depreciation of the Mexican Peso against the US Dollar throughout 2027. Despite emerging-market currencies generally resisting pressure from rising US yields, the bank expects more weakness in Latin America, with Mexico's Peso among those expected to weaken. The USD/MXN exchange rate is predicted to reach 18.00 by December 2026, then rise to 19.00 by December 2027.

This represents a 10% increase in the USD/MXN exchange rate, equivalent to around a 9.1% fall in the Peso's Dollar value against the bank's September reference rate of 17.27. The forecast is based on Crédit Agricole's view that higher yields offer support to emerging-market currencies, but currency losses remain a risk.

The bank explicitly separates Mexico from its more favourable regional views, stating that while they expect a slight appreciation of Asia against the US Dollar and Central Europe 4 against the Euro, they anticipate weakness in Latin America, with Mexico's Peso among those expected to decline. Crédit Agricole also notes that attractive yields alone do not invalidate their forecast, as investors can collect interest while losing value when Peso holdings are converted back into Dollars.