Micron Stock Hangs in Balance as Fed Rate Decision Looms

Micron Technology (MU) is set to report its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings on September 30, but investors might be more focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision a week earlier. With a now over 60% chance of an interest rate hike in September 2026, Micron's stock could be significantly affected.

Micron has already guided for exceptionally strong Q4 results with revenue expected to reach $49 billion to $51 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) between $30 and $32. However, the company's growth is heavily driven by higher pricing, not just in DRAM but also in NAND.

The memory shortage is not limited to high-bandwidth memory or AI data centers, with Micron's Mobile and Client business generating $11.5 billion in Q3 revenue and an 87% gross margin. The company has implemented strategic customer agreements that require customers to commit to specific purchase volumes over several years.

These agreements aim to reduce the volatility of previous memory cycles and provide a strong financial position for Micron, with expected customer deposits and related commitments totaling $22 billion, including about $18 billion in cash deposits. Despite this, investors remain cautious due to concerns about how long the current memory boom can persist.