Micron Stock Hinges on Fed Decision, Not Just Earnings

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is set to report its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings results on September 30. While the company has guided for exceptionally strong Q4 results, the bigger question is how long the memory boom can persist.

The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision, scheduled for September 16, could have a significant impact on Micron's stock. Wall Street now sees a more than 60% chance of an interest rate hike in September 2026, up from 41.4% a week earlier.

Micron's growth is being driven heavily by higher pricing. DRAM revenue rose 343% year over year to $31.3 billion in Q3, while NAND revenue soared 361% year over year to $9.9 billion.

However, an interest rate hike could still pressure Micron's stock even if the company delivers another strong quarter. Investors may perceive more risk due to concerns about whether today's extraordinary memory profits will last.